Global Shrimp Outlook in 2021

Friday, 19/02/2021, 15:15

Global Shrimp Outlook in 2021

1/ Global shrimp production in 2020:

+ Total production is estimated to 3.39 million of tons

+ A drop of 8% compared with 2019. Before, experts predicted the probability of drop in 2020 could be 15-20% but finally the drop is less than the prediction

India: estimated to be 570,000 tons, the drop of 25%
Viet Nam: estimated to be around 470,000 tons, there is no data of the production of 2019 to compare but many people predicted an increase of about 8-10%
Indonesia: estimated to be 285,000 tons, a drop of 6%
Thailand: estimated to be somewhere at 260,000 tons
Americas: over 1 million of tons a bit, in there Ecuador is the main player with the production about 730,000 tons

Comments:

+ Ecuador is still the biggest warm-water shrimp producer in the world, beginning of 2020 they had the sharp decrease of prices because many countries were locked down for Covid-19 meanwhile Ecuador mainly produces HOSO, HLSO and they had a lot of stock at that time, their main market is China locked down so causing the prices dropped fast then Ecuador must find other markets to sell the stock (USA, EU) with very low prices

+ India aimed to produce 1 million of tons but Covid came then they locked down whole country, logistics was absolutely suspended nationally then farmers can not stock shrimp causing the delay of stocking/harvesting and made farmers panic and sold all shrimp out, then causing the prices dropped much. Consequently, the shrimp production of India dropped the most by 25% in 2020

+ Viet Nam, thank to the good control of Covid then the shrimp production was not affected much. Firstly, farmers got panic a bit and sold shrimp out at low prices but after that farmers and people involved in shrimp industry got calm and adapted with the pandemic situation, Viet Nam is quite diverse in consumption markets and especially Viet Nam was pioneering for certifications and retails so that Viet Nam came up with very successful of selling shrimp in 2020

+ Another successful story is Indonesia, Indonesia was very successful with US market for retail segment. Even the production of 2020 is dropping 6% but thank to good consumption of US retail market then Indonesia shrimp industry has the significant growth of value

2/ Global shrimp production in 2021, estimated:

+ Total production is estimated to 3.69 million of tons

India: will rebound the production to 600,000 – 700,000 tons, 5% increase compared with the production of 2020, black tiger shrimp is about 90,000 tons. Due to the delay caused by the pandemic in 2020 so that stocking and harvesting in India has changes in farming regions in 2021
Ecuador: estimate to be around 780,000 tons, beginning of 2021 the shrimp prices in Ecuador are increasing a bit
China: shrimp production is about 570,000 tons, an increase of 14% compared with 2019. However, China is becoming the import country now, so they need more shrimp imported from other countries (Ecuador, Viet Nam, India…) to satisfy their local consumption. Prices of frozen packed shrimp are increasing in China after Chinese holiday because people get confident again after many evidences said Covid virus found outside of packaging
Viet Nam: estimated to be 500,000 tons with an increase of 10-12%. In there, Black tiger shrimp is about 90,000 tons
Indonesia: estimated to grow to 330,000 tons with an increase of 16% compared with 2020, and Black tiger shrimp is about 35,000 tons
Thailand: estimated to edge up to 300,000 tons

Comments:

+ Before the pandemic happened, India was very ambitious to target their shrimp production to 1 million of tons but that target is quite hard in this pandemic situation

+ Ecuador seems to be very brave after they passed a very difficult year in 2020, Ecuador is trying to diversify markets and products now but their main markets are still China, US and EU. I think, Ecuador is very difficult to achieve the shrimp production of 1 million of tons soon because they mainly farm shrimp extensively with low density (less than 50 PL/m2)

+ Viet Nam is very active and adaptive, Viet Nam does not aim highly to produce more shrimp but always try to increase the production year by year. Vietnamese farmer have much experience in farming now and they are switching from traditional farming models to super-intensive and intensive models many, big farmers and companies invested much for certifications (ASC/BAP) and new farming model (round floating pond) very easy for management and very effective in Mekong delta. Meanwhile, small farmers try to form cooperatives under supporting and guiding of NGOs to get more and more certified ASC/BAP for sustainable farming

+ Indonesia is also an important player for shrimp farming and supplying, their government set up very high ambition to grow more shrimp by 2024. Indonesia has good geography and condition to develop quickly, their farmers also have a lot of experience in farming so far, however; Indonesia hasn’t diversified markets like Viet Nam yet, they just heavily focus on US , some to Japan and some to EU

+ Thailand after EMS problem then their shrimp production seems to get behind compared with other countries, their shrimp prices also become less competitive compared with Viet Nam and Indonesia for added value products. For commodity products, their prices are quite far away compared with India and Ecuador

Well, very clearly Ecuador and India are competing fiercely for the commodity segment, meanwhile Viet Nam, Indonesia and Thailand will compete together for added value products and certified products

For pricing in 2021, I think the prices would not drop much like last year because people already get familiar with the pandemic and actually selling shrimp to retails and digital trading platforms is booming. Furthermore, many countries are rushing to vaccinate to people now so that the pandemic could be contained soon by the end of 2021, if so foodservices in countries will come back then consumption of shrimp increases

Just take example, normally the prices of shrimp raw material in Viet Nam are further dropping after TET holiday but this year, the prices are returning to increase after dropped continuously before the holiday

Vannamei buying prices in Bac Lieu & Ca Mau, 18/Feb/2021 (after TET holiday)

20 pcs/kg: 210,000 vnd/kg (exchange rate: usd/vnd = 22,910)

25 pcs/kg: 190,000 vnd/kg

30 pcs/kg: 162,000 vnd/kg

40 pcs/kg: 142,000 vnd/kg

50 pcs/kg: 128,000 vnd/kg

60 pcs/kg: 114,000 vnd/kg

70 pcs/kg: 108,000 vnd/kg

80 pcs/kg: 100,000 vnd/kg

100 pcs/kg: 92,000 vnd/kg

150 pcs/kg: 80,000 vnd/kg

200 pcs/kg: 62,000 vnd/kg